the skeptic

Thursday, February 27
 
Random: Congrats to Samantha Power for winning the nonfiction award from the National Book Critics Circle. the skeptic can't speak to her book, but this article (which won the National Magazine Award for Public Interest) should be required reading...




 
Notable: A new feature in TNR from Jacob Levy advocates a major federalist government in Iraq... Decreasing the goods (power) at the center means that coups are less likely... but two questions: 1) What about the military? Because whoever controls the army has the force to change the rules.... 2) What about coups/instability on a regional level? Aren't they similarly dangerous?

Let's not forget the lesson of Nigeria, which shows that 1) federalism can excite ethnic tension (immediate post-independence period), 2) federalism can cool ethnic tension (after the redivision of the country into 12 states) and 3) federalism can have little effect on stability.


 

We Must Not Allow a Mineshaft--er, Credibility Gap!


TRB sees a credibility gap with Turkey, and gives important context for understanding why Turkey recently faced off with the WBush administration. The first Gulf War sent 500,000 Kurds into Turkey, and destroyed the country's tourism industry.... The HWBushies then dropped Ankara like a bad habit...

Krugman, in a rantish polemic, sees the same thing with Mexico, but goes on to say, "I can't think of anyone other than the hard right and corporate lobbyists who has done a deal with Mr. Bush and not come away feeling betrayed." (Note to PK: How about you make arguments, instead of accusations?)
Update: In order to appease PK, Bush betrays Congressional Republicans...
the skeptic's First Lesson of Leadership: the key is to be able to betray your constituencies without making them feel that you've sold them out....

Switching topics, when will someone write an effective column about how absurd it is to attack Iraq on the basis of credibility? (i.e. respond to Chatterbox and Zakaria. Here's a good starting point: Vietnam. Just found this column, which could stand to be updated....)
Update: Barnes joins the "war for credibility" team.



 

Don't Forget the Obvious

Michael Tomasky has a great article about where Democrats need to go. He has an obvious solution: "The Democrats will never succeed as either a liberal party or a moderate party. They need to be both."

Of course, the problem is that the candidate needs to successfully portray himself as both... Clinton could do it, Gore couldn't. The populists were convinced that Gore would sell them out; the centrists were convinced that Gore would sell them out. (And, despite this, he almost won!)

Though the skeptic thinks Tomasky downplays charisma and the fact that the split between the fringe and the center is huge. After all, bringing conspiracy-theory oriented, quasi-socialists into a party with individualistic, fiscally moderate civil libertarians is easier said than done...

(The fringe right wing quickly shed Ross Perot in time for GWB... Can the conspiracy-theorist, all-are-to-be-mistrusted left move past Nader? the skeptic guesses the Dems will need to write them off as dead weight, and try to excite more liberals and centrists....)


Wednesday, February 26
 
Don't Read the Book!
Advice from one of the nation's top film critics...


 
DeLayed Reaction
Slate's Saletan writes an effective column slamming democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean... oh, wait.... (background)


 

A Multilateral Impression

If Bush can convince the leaders of five more countries (Angola, Cameroon, Chile, Guinea, Mexico) to vote for a resolution authorizing the use of force, and convince France, Russia, and China not to veto it, just about every American will take this to mean that "the world is on our side." You see, the UN isn't about having enough countries; it's all about having the right countries ....

What will it take to convince the leaders? Not money, but the lure of "an American partnership." As Chester Crocker, who was the assistant secretary of state for African affairs in the Reagan administration, puts it, "there's something pragmatic about" African politics. Like every leader looking out for his own ass, and using "international support" to legitimize his rule....
Update: Well, certainly not "money," but perhaps trade agreements.



 
Whoops! BBC: An unnamed oil company has reported the loss of two radioactive sources in the southern Niger Delta region.




 
Notable: Walzer weighs in with a good article about the tact anti-war protesters should take...

the skeptic does take issue with some of what he says, but thinks he's right about the strongest argument against the war: there are still alternatives. The problem, as he suggests, is whether we can rely on strong multilateralism to make a difference (Walzer thinks we can; Rwanda, Bosnia would suggest otherwise)...


 

Rather Makes History!

Hussein: I'm a Nice Guy, Really!

CBS News helps humanize Saddam Hussein in an interview with Dan Rather. Hussein plays himself as being a sympathetic person, willing to debate Bush in order to avoid peace, not seeking any trouble with Americans... And certainly would never burn oil fields ...

Two asides: 1) though this certainly isn't analogous, it made the skeptic wonder, if Hitler were around, is there any doubt he'd be getting interviews on CBS? and 2) why is it that everyone just refers to Hussein as "Saddam"? Doesn't decorum suggest the use of surnames?

Isn't everyone just a little too excited about Rather's interview? (though Rather submits "I was lucky") Sure, considering that we're about to go to war with Iraq, it's a huge interview... But let's not forget that Hussein was the one who called all the shots... and Rather was merely a vehicle for Hussein's "message for America"...

Was Rather's "get" just in time for sweeps?

At any rate, the most interesting thing about the interview is that it shows that Hussein knows this is a battle for U.S. (not world) opinion; and his adamant refusal of exile...

Not that it matters since we're going to war in mid-March....
Update: More Rather Love.

Update 2:This is getting annoying....



Tuesday, February 25
 
P.S. Isn't it damn creepy that Margaret Warner, David Brooks and Mark Shields are all calmly discussing the political implications of a terrorist attack before the 2004 election?
Update: The Post is expecting it too...



 

Varsity, Varsity, You Rah-Rah Independent-of-the-State-of-Wisconsin...

Does this budget crunch spell doom for the public university system? A recent article in the Chronicle suggests as much...

UW-System President Katherine Lyall says, "They want high access, low tuition, top quality, and no tax increases to pay for it. We have to get real about what realistically can be accomplished with the dollars we have." What is realistic? Oh, the skeptic doesn't know.... How about huge raises?

Selingo suggests that states are faced with rising Medicare costs, as well as lower state revenues. He pegs this decrease as being a result of a shift in consumption toward services (in 1960, they spent 41 cents; today it's 58). But how rapidly did this change over the past 42 years? And did it really amount to the state extracting less revenue out of its population? As Slate's Shafer points out, that's not true...

Perhaps universities will move away from the state toward an independent authority (as Lyall wishes), but isn't something being left out of all these pretty graphs on decreasing state revenue, increasing tuition, and increasing private funding? Like the rapid expansion of university budgets? Of course that would mean wondering if our universities overspend on education, and we all know that's not possible!


 

Mugabe to U.S: Disarm!

Bush to Mugabe: You're a Nutball

Zimbabwe's President Robert "Don't Mind Me, I'm Just Starving My Own People" Mugabe has now called on the U.S. to begin unilateral disarmament to resolve the Iraqi crisis.

the skeptic knows it's not even worth considering (after all, WWLD?)... but it's interesting because any American crusade for democracy and transparency would put mineral-rich Zimbabwe on the radar screen.... especially since Mugabe is causing another genocide....

Of course, the U.S. won't send troops to depose him, but there is no doubt it will increase sanctions... Why would Mugabe pick a fight with the U.S.? Well, first of all, he has nothing to lose... And secondly, it allows him to portray himself both domestically and internationally as a peace advocate, and a fighter for the oppressed....


 

You Say You Want a Revolution?

Sebastian Mallaby sees us entering a period where the future of markets is uncertain. We could either: 1) recognize that promoting competition and promoting free markets are not the same thing or 2) face a sweeping backlash against enterprise...

This second point seems to be overstated.... Mallaby points to California's energy crisis, Enron, WorldCom, and airplane passenger dissatisfaction as indicating a greater resilience to support the current economic system. Not to mention that even Republicans are now embracing governmental activism (insert fake shock here)! Perhaps the love of markets peaked during the dot-com boom, but is that any reason to cast a pall on the future of America's economic system?

Few Americans are actually clamoring for the government to truly change the way markets operate. They tend to be on the fringe left.... and resort to nothing more than platitudes... Calling Ms. Klein....

But calling on all politicos to move the dialogue from markets to competition certainly is a winner in my book....


Monday, February 24
 

Gangs from Ireland?

Did you realize that the Irish were the nation’s first underclass?

Why? They were associated with "prostitution, venereal disease, alcoholism, opium addiction, child abandonment, [and] infanticide." PBS's recent documentary on Chicago demonstrated the same thing... Interesting how (quickly?) the "Irish" became "white" Americans.... And, as the article briefly mentions, that Germans weren't victim to the same discrimination....

(The answer might have been buried in the rant on faith-based initiatives.... the skeptic rolled his eyes, got bored and skimmed to the end...)

And when does Dagger John get his proper due? He only saved the Irish!

Seems to be a more worthy myth than Lewis & Clark!


 

Hobbes Vs. Kant? Don't Forget Lincoln!

Paul Berman identifies Lincoln as a philosophical contender with Kant and Hobbes... Kind of a stretch, isn't it?

But he makes a good point here: "In the United States, on the other hand, a great many people--not everyone, but many--naturally assume that every country, all over the world, will eventually embrace liberal democracy."

And what a grand conclusion:
"Right now, we need to summon people around the world to express a "devotion" (in Lincoln's word) to liberal ideals--a devoted enthusiasm for those ideas among the schoolteachers in every impoverished immigrant suburb of Europe, among the editors in every Arab newspaper office, and among the professors in every Muslim university. We need the cooperation of millions of people, who, in their idealism, will rush out to argue with their own students and neighbors and readers. But the U.S. government, which knows how to twist the arms of Turkish politicians, does not know how to inspire the schoolteachers and newspaper editors and professors, not to mention the European masses, not to mention the American masses. Worse, the American leaders don't even try to inspire people around the world, which is shocking to see, considering that our current problem is 90 percent political and only 10 percent military.

"And so, we find ourselves in the midst of a Lincolnian war, a war for the liberation of others, yet led by people with Hobbesian instincts--find ourselves plunged into a crisis of liberal democracy, in which our leaders do not know what Lincoln knew, which was how to appeal to the ever more radical principles of liberal democracy. Our military is armed to the teeth, which turns out to be a good thing. (I admit it.) But our government has for some reason disarmed itself unilaterally in the realms of persuasion, inspirational example, philosophical clarity, and moral leadership. How did this happen to us? It has happened to us. Tocqueville thought that liberal societies could not wield power, and Lincoln proved him wrong. I am terrified that we are in the process of proving Lincoln wrong--that we are wielding power without liberalism, which will turn out to be no power at all."



 

The First Blog

Okay, this is the first post. Just to make sure everything is up and running.